Published October 2, 2026 in Market Update

Pelican Marsh Sellers Are Getting Over Asking Far Less Often

By Agnes Zak

Real estate, Pelican Marsh 10:01:2024 10:02:2026

People talk about Pelican Marsh like it still runs the way it did in early 2025, when sellers were getting over asking and buyers were moving fast. The data says that moment has passed. Not collapsed. Just quieter. The number that shows it most clearly is the share of homes that sold at or above what the seller first asked.

The share of homes selling at or over asking dropped from 15.4% to 4.5% in about a year

In January and February of 2025, 15.4% of lived-in homes in Pelican Marsh sold at or above their first asking price. That was 26 sales. By April and May of 2026, that share had fallen to 4.5%, across 22 sales. The odds of a seller getting full price or better have shrunk to less than 1 in 20. That is not a rounding difference. It is a real shift in who has the upper hand when the offer comes in.

The whole market still closed at 94.9% of what the home first asked, so sellers are not giving away the house. But the days of pricing high and waiting for a buyer to beat that number are mostly gone. At least for now....

Larger homes are closing at 90.2% of their first asking price, nearly 5 points below the market average

The gap between what a seller first asks and what they actually get grows with the size of the home. Homes between 1,500 and 2,500 square feet closed at 95.2% of their first asking price. Homes between 2,500 and 3,500 square feet closed at 94.3%. Homes between 3,500 and 5,000 square feet closed at 90.2%. That last group is selling at nearly a 10-point discount from their first number.

That 90.2% figure matters if you are pricing a larger home right now. A seller who opens too high on a 3,500-plus square foot home in Pelican Marsh is not just leaving room to negotiate. They are setting up a gap the data says buyers will take full advantage of. The smaller the home, the closer the final price tends to land to the opening ask.

At 3.1 months of supply, Pelican Marsh has not crossed into buyer territory yet

Twenty-two homes are for sale in Pelican Marsh right now. At the pace homes have been selling lately, that is 3.1 months of supply. A market under 4 months generally favors sellers. Pelican Marsh is still inside that line. None of the homes currently listed have dropped their price yet.

That is the part of the picture that keeps this from being a buyer's market. The shift is not in how many homes are available. It is in what buyers are willing to pay against that first number. Supply is still lean. Buyer patience is longer....

What this means if you are selling or buying in Pelican Marsh right now

If you are selling, the 3.1 months of supply gives you a real position. No homes currently listed have dropped their price. That is steady. But the data on over-asking sales is a clear signal: price to where buyers are, not to where they were in early 2025. The $700K to $850K range closed at 96.2% of first ask, the tightest of any price band. That range still moves well. Above $1.1M, the gap between first ask and final price widens. Start closer to your number and you are less likely to sit.

If you are buying, the national picture adds context. Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, up from 6.34% a year earlier. Nationally, the National Association of Realtors reported a 4.9-month supply of existing homes in August 2026, described as the highest in over ten years. Pelican Marsh is tighter than that national figure at 3.1 months, so do not expect the same negotiating room you might find elsewhere. But the days of losing to an over-asking offer are far less common here than they were. The data says you have more room to negotiate than you did fifteen months ago. Use it, but do not push so hard you lose a home that fits.