Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Sales rose even with higher rates

By Agnes Zak

Real estate, Primary market

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% on October 1, 2026. That is not a small number. And yet the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,186 homes sold across this market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 19.4% from the same three months a year before. People were still deciding. Still closing.

Nationally, the picture was quieter. The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August 2026. Their months of supply reached 4.9 months, the highest level in over ten years. Naples and Collier County moved differently. At least for now.

Fewer homes were sitting available. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed inventory across the market down 23.7% from a year before. More buyers, fewer choices. That combination tends to move things along, even when rates are high.

Not every area moved the same way

The areas west of 41, inside the City of Naples, and the gated communities east of 41 told different stories. Price, pace, and supply varied a great deal by area. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted, by area, for the three months ending July 31, 2026.

What stands out

The area covering Port Royal, Aqualane Shores, and downtown Naples, west of 41, had the highest median sale price: $2,250,000, up 7.1% from a year before. The Real Estate Data Aggregator also showed days on market there fell 36 days shorter than the year before, down to 117 days. Still a long time. But moving faster.

The area covering Park Shore and the Moorings, also west of 41, saw the biggest jump in homes sold: up 33.9%. Median sale price there came in at $1,260,000, up 3.3%. Months of supply dropped 4.5 months, to 5.1 months.

The area covering many of the gated communities north of the city, including Pelican Bay, counted 181 homes sold, up 14.6%. The median sale price dipped 9.4%, to $1,055,000. Days on market went the other direction: 17 days longer than a year before. More sales, but buyers took their time.

The area with the most sales, covering gated communities further west of I-75 including Riverstone and similar neighborhoods, counted 250 homes sold, up 13.6%. Median price edged down 2.4%, to $666,000. Months of supply fell to 3.7 months. Nearly 1 in 6 homes there went under contract within two weeks of listing, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

The rate question

Freddie Mac put the 15-year fixed rate at 6.60% on October 1, 2026. Some buyers in this market pay cash, which takes the rate question off the table entirely. Some do not. For those who borrow, the rate is real. Trying to time it is like gambling. You may win. You may not.

CNBC reported in September 2026 that 82% of Miami condo sales valued at $1 million or more in 2025 were all-cash transactions. That pattern is not unique to Miami. In this market, cash buyers at the higher end have long been a feature, not an exception. Rates matter less when there is no loan.

CNBC also reported that inflation-adjusted home prices fell 1.6% year over year in Miami, and that 194 ultra-luxury sales of $10 million or more closed in Miami-Dade County in the first eight months of 2026. The broader South Florida luxury market kept moving even as prices softened in real terms. Naples is not Miami, but the two markets share some of the same buyer pool at the upper end.

Gulf Shore Business reported in September 2026 that Collier County's overall property market value reached $217.7 billion in 2026, with taxable values at $170.3 billion. Market values declined 3.23% compared to the prior year. Sales volume went up. Values edged down. Both things are true at once.

Gulf Shore Business also noted in October 2026 that Naples' Miracle Mile stretch along Gulf Shore Boulevard North runs 1.3 miles. That small stretch west of 41 sits at the heart of the area where the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median sale price of $2,250,000. Location still does most of the work.

One street can read very differently from the whole area. The numbers above cover broad areas. Your block, your development, your building may be doing something else entirely. If you want to know what is happening closer to home, send me your address.